Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates

Title: Solar energy production in the USA
“Econometric forecasting and analysis for photovoltaic hardware failure rates”

*Word count 1000-1100 plus SPSS graphs(provided)

*Method: Survival Analysis in order to forecast the time to failure of PV components, region USA

1) Introduction

Introduction to the report project and identification of what the data is aiming to illustrate

the task of paper: investigating hardware‐related problems such as modules, inverters, and other BOS components.

the goal of the report: Using the knowledge from the survival analysis, one would be ultimately able to reduce the risk of interrupted energy production (the point here: data used for and aim to illustrate outcome).

Key notion: Reliability plays a central role in PV being cost-competitive with traditional energy sources; therefore, it is important to rapidly assess whether any quality deficits exist in the equipment or installation practices, in order to enable timely continuous improvement

2) Methodology

Overview/explaining survival analysis

What does survival analysis provide in terms of outputs? Discuss survival time/ time to failure of solar equipment

This needs to be quite detailed to ensure that all aspects of the model are covered, such as strengths/ weaknesses/ effectiveness, etc. Support work with academic texts. (!!!)

3) Illustration Survival Analysis using SPSS data (provided) with explanation and analysis

a) illustrate numerical analysis (provided)

b) explain and analyze outputs appropriately given the provided SPSS data and graph, explain what the graph is showing, and be analytical in the discussion

c) Support work with academic text ref.

4) Prediction of future trends/ Conclusion

Utilize the above SPSS data & graph to ultimately forecast future trends for solar component reliability in line with what is illustrated

The forecast should enable us to estimate how often solar equipment will need replacement to ensure continued energy production. For more information on Wharton, Econometric Forecasting Associates check on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wharton_Econometric_Forecasting_Associates

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