The tourist industry is subject to enormous seasonal variation. a


     The tourist industry   is subject to enormous seasonal variation. A hotel in North Queensland has   recorded its occupancy rate for each quarter during the past 5 years. These   data are shown in the accompanying table.    Table 1: Occupancy rate   Year,2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008,   Quarter 1, 0.261, 0.295, 0.312, 0.362,   0.396   Quarter 2, 0.302, 0.324, 0.345, 0.388,   0.418   Quarter 3, 0.502, 0.568, 0.598, 0.696,   0.782   Quarter 4, 0.568, 0.615, 0.698, 0.738,   0.802       QUESTION A   What is the centred moving average that   would correspond to Quarter 3 in 2006?    Answers should be consistent with the   data provided and to be to three decimal places      QUESTION B   What is the adjusted seasonal index for   Quarter 3 __________%?    Answer should be listed to three decimal   places in the form of 0.123 i.e. 0.123 represents 12.3%      QUESTION C   The trend line for this decomposition   model was calculated to be Y = 0.36806 + 0.01195 T (where T represents time).   What would be the coefficient of determination (R2) for this trend line?   (Select the closest correct answer.)   0.2973 (i.e. 29.73%)   0.5452 (i.e. 54.52%)   0.7165 (i.e. 71.65%)   0.9886 (i.e. 98.86%)       QUESTION D   What would be the forecast in Quarter 3,   2009 using the trend line given previously (recall that to three decimal   places it was Y = 0.368 + 0.012T) and the relevant adjusted seasonal   index?    Answer should be consistent with the data   provided and to be three decimal places      QUESTION E   If we exponentially smooth the data in   Table 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.2, the smoothed value for Quarter 1 in   2005 would be?    Answer should be consistent with the data   provided and to be three decimal places      QUESTION F   If we exponentially smooth the data in   Table 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.2, the forecast for Quarter 1 2009   would be?   Answer should be consistent with the data   provided and to be three decimal places    

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