Low Probability Events

1. Look at the notes. Compute the percentage of 0s and 10s reported after each of the rounds (slides 5-8) and fill in the table below:
Round Slide % of 0s reported out of all tosses % of 10s reported out of all tosses
1 5 % (denominator =10) % (denominator =10)
2 6 % (denominator =20) % (denominator =20)
3 7 % (denominator =30) % (denominator =30)
4 8 % (denominator =40) % (denominator =40)

2. How does the percentage of low probability events (in this case no heads or all heads out of 10) change as the number of trials increases?
3. Compute the Mean, Mode, and Median number of heads after each round
Mean = sum of all values/number of values
Mode = most common value
Median value at which half of all values lie above and half lie below. If there is an even number of numbers add the two middles and divide by 2. The result will be the median. If there is an odd number of values, the middle value is the median.
Round Mean Mode Median
1
2
3
4

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4. What is the relationship between the area under a curve and the probability of an event happening?
5. Imagine you are comparing the mean heights of samples of people from two countries. Is the likelihood of getting a very large T-score relatively likely or unlikely if there is no consistent pattern of difference in height in the populations of the two countries?

For more information on Low Probability Events read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_risk

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