In response of 150 words to 200 words, please explain whether polling has improved appreciably since the 1936 election, and if so why?
Since the magazine Literary Digest was able to correctly predict the 1920, 1924, 1928, and 1932 elections, what may have gone wrong in 1936?
Could the Depression have in some ways caused the polling to be off in 1936 for Literary Digest and why?
Also, do straw polls have a utility or would it be better to simply ignore such polls?
Do you feel that random sampling is preferable or if you feel stratified sampling is best, please explain why?
George Gallup erred in 1948 by predicting Thomas Dewey would win the presidential election that year. Did the presence of third-party nominees in the race, Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace respectively, who were polling fairly well, cause the election models to not accurately reflect the actions of late deciders?
Is this still a problem with election models today?
Is it possible that the electoral college v. popular vote discrepancies seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections are partially accounted for by the presence of stronger than usual third-party candidates? For information on Literary Digest read this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Literary_Digest
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