# Bus 520 module 4 case (revisions)

## Please read assignment below carefully. I have uploaded the assignments that need to be revised. Here is a message from my professor about the assignment:

I took a look at the spreadsheet for case 4.  Almost there – but still a couple of things to fix

Your starting data should have been adjusted to have the sales for Feb related to the hits for January (remember, we’re considering hits as a predictor of the next month’s sales).

You need to do the MAPE work table (Jan-Dec) for both .15 and .9 alpha

Your forecast for Feb-Apr needs to build on your previous table (so use the f(t) from Dec in your calculation

Since this is a forecast (feb-apr) only need to do for alpha =1

Your paper will need to be adjusted to reflect what you see when you do these changes.  It also needs some references/citations to introduce critical thinking into the discussion.

## Module 4 – Case

### RISK: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING AND VALUE OF INFORMATION

#### Assignment Overview

Scenario: You are still a consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group. You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing a forecasting method based on linear regression (Case 3). However, your consulting manager at ECG wants to go the next step and investigate another forecasting method. It is important to do a thorough job for the client, and you have the expertise to analyze different forecasting methods. You have decided to look at the sales data for client’s lottery app as a single data set and use a time series analysis, namely SES, single exponential smoothing.

#### Case Assignment

Using Excel, use the forecasted sales from Case 3 to compute the MAPE, by doing the following:

1. Calculate the MAPE for the first 12 months (assume the forecast for Month 1 – or January – is equal to January’s actual sales). Use 0.15 and 0.90 alphas.
2. Using the forecasted sales for Feb – April (taken from the Case 3 Linear Regression exercise), compute the MAPE by comparing actual sales for each month, or Y(t) to forecasted sales, or F(t). Compare this 3-month MAPE to the two MAPE values you calculated in your SES analysis above. Use the following table:
 Month Sales, Y(t) Sales F(t) Y(t) – F(t) PE APE February ? ? ? ? ? March ? ? ? ? ? April ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ME MPE MAPE

Then write a report to your boss that briefly describes the results that you obtained. Using MAPE values, make a recommendation on which method appears to be more accurate — SES or Linear Regression.

Data: Use the data that you previously have generated from your analyses in Case 3.

#### Assignment Expectations

Analysis

• Accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel.

Written Report

• Length requirements = 45 pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages)
• Provide a brief introduction/ background of the problem.
• Complete and accurate Excel analysis.
• Written analysis that supports Excel analysis, and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.
• Complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s).
Calculate the price
Pages (550 words)
\$0.00
*Price with a welcome 15% discount applied.
Pro tip: If you want to save more money and pay the lowest price, you need to set a more extended deadline.
We know how difficult it is to be a student these days. That's why our prices are one of the most affordable on the market, and there are no hidden fees.

Instead, we offer bonuses, discounts, and free services to make your experience outstanding.
How it works
Receive a 100% original paper that will pass Turnitin from a top essay writing service
step 1
Fill out the order form and provide paper details. You can even attach screenshots or add additional instructions later. If something is not clear or missing, the writer will contact you for clarification.
Pro service tips
How to get the most out of your experience with Australia Assessments
One writer throughout the entire course
If you like the writer, you can hire them again. Just copy & paste their ID on the order form ("Preferred Writer's ID" field). This way, your vocabulary will be uniform, and the writer will be aware of your needs.
The same paper from different writers
You can order essay or any other work from two different writers to choose the best one or give another version to a friend. This can be done through the add-on "Same paper from another writer."
Copy of sources used by the writer
Our college essay writers work with ScienceDirect and other databases. They can send you articles or materials used in PDF or through screenshots. Just tick the "Copy of sources" field on the order form.
Testimonials
See why 20k+ students have chosen us as their sole writing assistance provider
Check out the latest reviews and opinions submitted by real customers worldwide and make an informed decision.
Psychology
This week's paper was written really well; however, I could immediately ascertain that a different writer had written this paper because there was some minor formatting errors that needed to be corrected. Also, I had to re-write a couple of sentences, but it was not anything major to request a revision for. Overall, the paper was good, but I would like to see consistency in the papers regardless of different writers.
Customer 452455, April 29th, 2023
Always format your paper as instructed.
Customer 458115, April 7th, 2022
nursing
Always edit in Grammarly.
Customer 462635, April 8th, 2022
SEO
good work
Customer 463813, April 14th, 2023
Other
thank you very much
Customer 462327, September 22nd, 2022
Marketing
This is a great paper, can't wait to get my grade back
Customer 453633, February 5th, 2020
Social Work and Human Services
Good work.
Customer 460073, June 23rd, 2022
Aviation
Great job on the revision. Rating reflects the revision after upgrading the writer. Previous tutor's assistance was not very good at all. I am still very happy with the assistance provided by the tutor and the support team.
Customer 454145, April 5th, 2020
Impeccable.
Customer 459947, April 6th, 2022
Technology
I want to say, "Thank you so much!" to the writer that completed the revision to my specifications. Although there are slight changes that need to be made, I am satisfied with the final product.
Customer 452455, January 19th, 2023
Religious studies
Excellent response.
Customer 460547, April 20th, 2022
Retail
Great services
Customer 463473, November 10th, 2022
11,595
Customer reviews in total
96%
Current satisfaction rate
3 pages
Average paper length
37%
Customers referred by a friend