Managing uncertainty in construction contracts

The procurement stage within construction contracts commonly results in having big disputes among involved parties. Unrealistic procurement durations and forced contractual terms/conditions issues may be resolved using advance calculations/statistics methods. Monte Carlo Simulation with other smart planning tools may be a good approach.


When reviewed among other businesses, construction is one of the most hazards, risky, and less profitable businesses. Associated uncertainty levels could be high particularly during the procurement stage.

Procurement could be defined as the acquisition of goods and services. In construction, the terminology goes beyond this description as it can incorporate outsource services on every level throughout the scope of a defined project. Construction firms have undertaken significant and widespread change. However, scope clarity, design parameters accuracy, and procurement of long-lead materials remained among the main factors that adversely affect the performance of construction contractors. In an effort to mitigate these prominent risks, I have decided to explore the applications of Monte Carlo simulation to reduce project risks, uncertainties in general, and procurement of long-lead materials in particular.

Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is a mathematical technique that produces random variables for demonstrating the risk or uncertainty of a certain system. It also uses quantified data, allowing project construction managers to better justify and communicate their arguments when senior management/client is pushing for unrealistic project expectations. The research study will concentrate on quantitative analysis and risk identifications. Suggested research methodology shall include secondary data analysis from previously accomplished construction projects, a mix of observations, and experiments.


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