# The u.s. national highway traffic safety administration gathers

The U.S.   National Highway Traffic Safety Administration gathers data concerning the   causes of highway crashes where at least one fatality has occurred. The   following probabilities were determined from the 1998 annual study (BAC is   blood alcohol-content).   P(BAC=0 | Crash with   fatality)=.616      P(BAC is between .01 and .09 |   Crash with fatality)=.300      P(BAC is greater than .09 |   Crash with fatality)=.084

Suppose   that over a certain stretch of highway during a 1 year period, the   probability of being in a crash that results in at least one fatality is.01.   It has been estimated that 12% of the drivers on this highway drive while   their BAC is greater than .09. Determine the probability of a crash with at   least one fatality if a driver drives while legally intoxicated (BAC greater   than .09).

Your   favorite team is in the final playoffs. You have assigned a probability of   60% that they will win the championship. Past records indicate that when   teams win the championship, they win the first game of the series 70% of the   time. When they lose the series, they win the first game 25% of the time. The first game is over: your team has lost. What is the probability that they will win the series?

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